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The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives
From the New York Times bestselling authors of Abundance and Bold comes a practical playbook for technological convergence in our modern era.
In their book Abundance, bestselling authors and futurists Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler tackled grand global challenges, such as poverty, hunger, and energy. Then, in Bold, they chronicled the use of exponential technologies that allowed the emergence of powerful new entrepreneurs. Now the bestselling authors are back with The Future Is Faster Than You Think, a blueprint for how our world will change in response to the next ten years of rapid technological disruption.
Technology is accelerating far more quickly than anyone could have imagined. During the next decade, we will experience more upheaval and create more wealth than we have in the past hundred years. In this gripping and insightful roadmap to our near future, Diamandis and Kotler investigate how wave after wave of exponentially accelerating technologies will impact both our daily lives and society as a whole. What happens as AI, robotics, virtual reality, digital biology, and sensors crash into 3D printing, blockchain, and global gigabit networks? How will these convergences transform today’s legacy industries? What will happen to the way we raise our kids, govern our nations, and care for our planet?
Diamandis, a space-entrepreneur-turned-innovation-pioneer, and Kotler, bestselling author and peak performance expert, probe the science of technological convergence and how it will reinvent every part of our lives—transportation, retail, advertising, education, health, entertainment, food, and finance—taking humanity into uncharted territories and reimagining the world as we know it.
As indispensable as it is gripping, The Future Is Faster Than You Think provides a prescient look at our impending future.
In their book Abundance, bestselling authors and futurists Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler tackled grand global challenges, such as poverty, hunger, and energy. Then, in Bold, they chronicled the use of exponential technologies that allowed the emergence of powerful new entrepreneurs. Now the bestselling authors are back with The Future Is Faster Than You Think, a blueprint for how our world will change in response to the next ten years of rapid technological disruption.
Technology is accelerating far more quickly than anyone could have imagined. During the next decade, we will experience more upheaval and create more wealth than we have in the past hundred years. In this gripping and insightful roadmap to our near future, Diamandis and Kotler investigate how wave after wave of exponentially accelerating technologies will impact both our daily lives and society as a whole. What happens as AI, robotics, virtual reality, digital biology, and sensors crash into 3D printing, blockchain, and global gigabit networks? How will these convergences transform today’s legacy industries? What will happen to the way we raise our kids, govern our nations, and care for our planet?
Diamandis, a space-entrepreneur-turned-innovation-pioneer, and Kotler, bestselling author and peak performance expert, probe the science of technological convergence and how it will reinvent every part of our lives—transportation, retail, advertising, education, health, entertainment, food, and finance—taking humanity into uncharted territories and reimagining the world as we know it.
As indispensable as it is gripping, The Future Is Faster Than You Think provides a prescient look at our impending future.
384 pages, Hardcover
First published January 28, 2020
About the author
Peter H. Diamandis
17 books708 followersDr. Peter H. Diamandis is an international pioneer in the fields of innovation, incentive competitions and commercial space. In 2014 he was named one of "The World’s 50 Greatest Leaders" – by Fortune Magazine.
In the field of Innovation, Diamandis is Founder and Executive Chairman of the XPRIZE Foundation, best known for its $10 million Ansari XPRIZE for private spaceflight.
Diamandis is also the Co-Founder and Vice-Chairman of Human Longevity Inc. (HLI), a genomics and cell therapy-based diagnostic and therapeutic company focused on extending the healthy human lifespan. He is also the Executive Founder of Singularity University, a graduate-level Silicon Valley institution that studies exponentially growing technologies, their ability to transform industries and solve humanity’s grand challenges.
In the field of commercial space, Diamandis is Co-Founder/Co-Chairman of Planetary Resources, a company designing spacecraft to enable the detection and prospecting of asteroid for precious materials. He is also the Co-Founder of Space Adventures and Zero-Gravity Corporation.
Diamandis is the New York Times Bestselling author of Abundance – The Future Is Better Than You Think and BOLD – How to go Big, Create Wealth & Impact the World.
He earned an undergraduate degree in Molecular Genetics and a graduate degree in Aerospace Engineering from MIT, and received his M.D. from Harvard Medical School.
Diamandis’ mission is to open the space frontier for humanity. His personal motto is: "The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself."
In 2016, the Greek Government honored him by issuing a 1.2 Euro stamp into circulation. Also in 2016, the book How To Make A Spaceship – A Band of Renegades, an Epic Race, and the Birth of Private Spaceflight, Peter’s biography and the story of the XPRIZE was written by Julian Guthrie with a Foreword by Richard Branson and an Afterword by Prof. Stephen Hawking.
In the field of Innovation, Diamandis is Founder and Executive Chairman of the XPRIZE Foundation, best known for its $10 million Ansari XPRIZE for private spaceflight.
Diamandis is also the Co-Founder and Vice-Chairman of Human Longevity Inc. (HLI), a genomics and cell therapy-based diagnostic and therapeutic company focused on extending the healthy human lifespan. He is also the Executive Founder of Singularity University, a graduate-level Silicon Valley institution that studies exponentially growing technologies, their ability to transform industries and solve humanity’s grand challenges.
In the field of commercial space, Diamandis is Co-Founder/Co-Chairman of Planetary Resources, a company designing spacecraft to enable the detection and prospecting of asteroid for precious materials. He is also the Co-Founder of Space Adventures and Zero-Gravity Corporation.
Diamandis is the New York Times Bestselling author of Abundance – The Future Is Better Than You Think and BOLD – How to go Big, Create Wealth & Impact the World.
He earned an undergraduate degree in Molecular Genetics and a graduate degree in Aerospace Engineering from MIT, and received his M.D. from Harvard Medical School.
Diamandis’ mission is to open the space frontier for humanity. His personal motto is: "The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself."
In 2016, the Greek Government honored him by issuing a 1.2 Euro stamp into circulation. Also in 2016, the book How To Make A Spaceship – A Band of Renegades, an Epic Race, and the Birth of Private Spaceflight, Peter’s biography and the story of the XPRIZE was written by Julian Guthrie with a Foreword by Richard Branson and an Afterword by Prof. Stephen Hawking.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 497 reviews
April 15, 2020
A comprehensive summary of technologies that seem promising right now. But hypes up them instead of discussing them objectively. Some descriptions in the book seemed to be more marketing speak (like calling Google's AutoML an AI-that-creates-AIs) than a rigorous evaluation.
The book also gives a very high level overview of tech – without going into any detail. If you're someone who is already familiar with the tech world, you may not get much out of this.
Would recommend this for anyone who is looking for opportunities in emerging technologies, and doesn't yet have a concrete understanding of what is possible. But would not recommend it to people who are regular listeners of tech podcasts or readers of similar books.
The book also gives a very high level overview of tech – without going into any detail. If you're someone who is already familiar with the tech world, you may not get much out of this.
Would recommend this for anyone who is looking for opportunities in emerging technologies, and doesn't yet have a concrete understanding of what is possible. But would not recommend it to people who are regular listeners of tech podcasts or readers of similar books.
March 23, 2020
Reads almost like a parody of what the world would be like if every single pie-in-the-sky proclamation from tech execs came true in the next 5-10 years.
May 16, 2020
If you haven’t read this book yet, I suggest you begin now. The future is so fast that if you haven’t read this book, you’re already pretty far behind.
These authors are not going to identify anything that could go wrong with the technologies of the future. If you have read their last two books, you will know by now, they are interested in looking at the potential progressing technologies bring to society, but they are not at all interested in troubleshooting the potential problems that will accompany many of those technologies. As long as you are not expecting a critical but exciting view of the future, then I highly recommend this book. It brings all the excitement without weighing itself down by potential issues with future technology. I mean, I for one and eagerly awaiting zooming along in my flying Uber car that can reach speeds of more than 150 mph, fit for passengers, cost 44 cents a mile to Operate, have multiple rotors so that if one rotor fails I can remain in the air and not crash, and charge in seven minutes flat. But, I, like Elon Musk, do worry that until flying cars are truly ready for primetime, there might be a lot of issues that could potentially harm passengers below. I think Musk might have used the example of a hubcap falling off? Idk, maybe I am misquoting him. I don't worry so much about that because I assume cars will be made in a way that pieces can't just come flying off.
If you are looking for a book that introduces mind blowing future tech and also introduces concerns we should anticipate, I recommend Yuval Noah Harari's 21 lessons for the 21st Century.
Diamandis and Kotler always deliver an excitement filled journey into the future. Their books fill me with anticipation and awe. Always a joy to read.
These authors are not going to identify anything that could go wrong with the technologies of the future. If you have read their last two books, you will know by now, they are interested in looking at the potential progressing technologies bring to society, but they are not at all interested in troubleshooting the potential problems that will accompany many of those technologies. As long as you are not expecting a critical but exciting view of the future, then I highly recommend this book. It brings all the excitement without weighing itself down by potential issues with future technology. I mean, I for one and eagerly awaiting zooming along in my flying Uber car that can reach speeds of more than 150 mph, fit for passengers, cost 44 cents a mile to Operate, have multiple rotors so that if one rotor fails I can remain in the air and not crash, and charge in seven minutes flat. But, I, like Elon Musk, do worry that until flying cars are truly ready for primetime, there might be a lot of issues that could potentially harm passengers below. I think Musk might have used the example of a hubcap falling off? Idk, maybe I am misquoting him. I don't worry so much about that because I assume cars will be made in a way that pieces can't just come flying off.
If you are looking for a book that introduces mind blowing future tech and also introduces concerns we should anticipate, I recommend Yuval Noah Harari's 21 lessons for the 21st Century.
Diamandis and Kotler always deliver an excitement filled journey into the future. Their books fill me with anticipation and awe. Always a joy to read.
January 9, 2021
Amazing amazing amazing!
This book covers all the latest and greatest technologies, what it means for the earth and humanity, the implications, the biggest companies researching and developing them, next steps, struggles, ethics, expansion and growth opportunities.
Sure some things you've heard of like AI or 3D Printing but this book deep dives into it and you gain knowledge you didn't have before!
This book covers all the latest and greatest technologies, what it means for the earth and humanity, the implications, the biggest companies researching and developing them, next steps, struggles, ethics, expansion and growth opportunities.
Sure some things you've heard of like AI or 3D Printing but this book deep dives into it and you gain knowledge you didn't have before!
June 7, 2020
I should just dust off my review for Kevin Kelly's The Inevitable, same situation here. I just don't understand for whom the book is for. If you follow technology blogs for a while, you read everything in this book previously somewhere, usually in better form. Reading was an ordeal, it reads like marketing pamphlets for C-level guys to allow them BS on next posh tech party about the "newest bestest buzzword".
It brings a drop of positivity, not all doom and gloom like you have in regular newspaper, but book serves it in boring pattern "HEADLINE, HEADLINE...blah, blah, blah..HEADLINE..blah, in 5 years we will all have automatic flying cars and we will be living in VR worlds...blah..HEADLINE".
It feels like how I would write finishing thesis on future technology. You know, the kind of thesis that only your reviewer will read, it will be sitting somewhere in dark corner of a library, collecting dust. The kind of thesis that you really dont want to write, but you have to, so you procrastinate a lot and then you collect a bunch of citations from bunch of articles, glue them with a duct tape and continue with your life looking for something more important.
Didn't enjoy it too much, maybe I will just go through included comprehensive list of notes (thumb up for that) to read something more.
It brings a drop of positivity, not all doom and gloom like you have in regular newspaper, but book serves it in boring pattern "HEADLINE, HEADLINE...blah, blah, blah..HEADLINE..blah, in 5 years we will all have automatic flying cars and we will be living in VR worlds...blah..HEADLINE".
It feels like how I would write finishing thesis on future technology. You know, the kind of thesis that only your reviewer will read, it will be sitting somewhere in dark corner of a library, collecting dust. The kind of thesis that you really dont want to write, but you have to, so you procrastinate a lot and then you collect a bunch of citations from bunch of articles, glue them with a duct tape and continue with your life looking for something more important.
Didn't enjoy it too much, maybe I will just go through included comprehensive list of notes (thumb up for that) to read something more.
November 23, 2023
Книга, яка за кілька років втратить свою актуальність. Перш за все, це тому, що левова частка технологій та процесів, які описані в книзі, вже розвиваються, подекуди зазнавши серйозних успіхів.
Стосовно окреслених тем, то у своєму відгуку Ганна Кузьо чудово сформувала невеличкий summary за темами.
Загалом, книга цілком ок, непоганий варіант, щоб розбавити художку нонфікшином.
Стосовно окреслених тем, то у своєму відгуку Ганна Кузьо чудово сформувала невеличкий summary за темами.
Загалом, книга цілком ок, непоганий варіант, щоб розбавити художку нонфікшином.
April 10, 2020
This is a useful book if you want to gain fluency and an update on a range of emerging technologies and aren't already up-to-date. It is well-informed and well-researched as the authors are well connected in these industries. Its relentless optimism about technology does grate a bit after a while as we all know that there needs to be a balance between the benefits and downsides/risks. It is also rather US focused so looks at technology with a silicon valley lens. Take it with a large pinch of salt, but overall I found it a useful round-up of the technologies.
July 2, 2020
I had high expectations for the book based on reviews. But looks like the book has been written for those who don’t follow technological changes. The book touches issues from the surface and does not go deeper. Most of what the author mentions can be found reading news.
The book is ill researched ( few % numbers mentioned here and there) and contain ton of authors opinions and views - which is always optimistic. In 1960s it was expected there would be flying cars in few decades. Technology does not happen as humans expect. Despite that the author gives its forecasts most of the time.
If you have intermediate knowledge of tech changes, read news occasionally, i would recommend to save time and skip the book. For the rest of community, it is good read
The book is ill researched ( few % numbers mentioned here and there) and contain ton of authors opinions and views - which is always optimistic. In 1960s it was expected there would be flying cars in few decades. Technology does not happen as humans expect. Despite that the author gives its forecasts most of the time.
If you have intermediate knowledge of tech changes, read news occasionally, i would recommend to save time and skip the book. For the rest of community, it is good read
October 19, 2020
This is a crash course on all the technological developments that are on the horizon. it includes the innovations in agriculture, commerce, education, entertainment, finance, food, real estate, retail, transportation, and its implications on economies, communities, and humanity as a whole. I recommend it to any who is trying to catch up with the breadth of transformations in technologies that are creating an acceleration towards exponential disruption.
October 31, 2021
Towards the end of listening to the audiobook, Mark Zuckerberg announced Facebook rebranded itself to build the Metaverse, a shared virtual environment. What a apt timing! The book shares how the world will change in response to rapid technological disruption. Some parts can be dry as each chapter shared the history and development of each technology, its benefits and what it will be in the future. Many interesting insights on how technologies will change our lives and society as a whole.
January 31, 2020
The Future Is Faster Than You Think
By: Peter H. Diamandis ,Steven Kotler
Publish: January 2020
آینده سریعتر از آنچه فکر می کنید، نقشه ای برای چگونگی تغییر جهان ما در ده سال آینده و پیشرفت سریع فناوری هستش. فناوری خیلی سریعتر از آن چیزی که هر کسی بتواند تصور کند سرعت دارد. در طول یک دهه آینده، ما طغیان بیشتری را تجربه خواهیم کرد و ثروت بیشتری را نسبت به صد سال گذشته خود ایجاد خواهیم کرد. نویسندگان تلاش می کنند موج های فن آوری های که بر زندگی روزمره ما و جامعه به طور کلی تأثیر می گذارند را بررسی کنند. چه اتفاقی می افتد که هوش مصنوعی، روباتیک، واقعیت مجازی، زیست شناسی دیجیتال و سنسورها به شبکه های چاپ سه بعدی، بلاکچین و شبکه های گیگابیتی جهانی ختم میشوند؟ این همگرایی ها چگونه صنایع قدیمی امروزی را تغییر خواهند داد؟ چه تاثیری در روش بزرگ کردن فرزندان ما ، اداره ملت ما و مراقبت از سیاره ما خواهد داشت؟
نویسنده علوم همگرایی فناوری را بررسی می کند و اینکه چگونه این فناوری می تواند همه بخش های زندگی ما را از جمله حمل و نقل، خرده فروشی، تبلیغات، آموزش، بهداشت و درمان، سرگرمی، غذا و امور مالی را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد بطوریکه با بردن بشریت به سرزمین های غیرقابل کنترل و تصور مجدد دنیا همانطور که می شناسیم از نو بسازد.
آینده سریعتر از آنچه فکر می کنید، نگاهی آگاهانه به آینده قریب الوقوع ما ارائه می دهد.
By: Peter H. Diamandis ,Steven Kotler
Publish: January 2020
آینده سریعتر از آنچه فکر می کنید، نقشه ای برای چگونگی تغییر جهان ما در ده سال آینده و پیشرفت سریع فناوری هستش. فناوری خیلی سریعتر از آن چیزی که هر کسی بتواند تصور کند سرعت دارد. در طول یک دهه آینده، ما طغیان بیشتری را تجربه خواهیم کرد و ثروت بیشتری را نسبت به صد سال گذشته خود ایجاد خواهیم کرد. نویسندگان تلاش می کنند موج های فن آوری های که بر زندگی روزمره ما و جامعه به طور کلی تأثیر می گذارند را بررسی کنند. چه اتفاقی می افتد که هوش مصنوعی، روباتیک، واقعیت مجازی، زیست شناسی دیجیتال و سنسورها به شبکه های چاپ سه بعدی، بلاکچین و شبکه های گیگابیتی جهانی ختم میشوند؟ این همگرایی ها چگونه صنایع قدیمی امروزی را تغییر خواهند داد؟ چه تاثیری در روش بزرگ کردن فرزندان ما ، اداره ملت ما و مراقبت از سیاره ما خواهد داشت؟
نویسنده علوم همگرایی فناوری را بررسی می کند و اینکه چگونه این فناوری می تواند همه بخش های زندگی ما را از جمله حمل و نقل، خرده فروشی، تبلیغات، آموزش، بهداشت و درمان، سرگرمی، غذا و امور مالی را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد بطوریکه با بردن بشریت به سرزمین های غیرقابل کنترل و تصور مجدد دنیا همانطور که می شناسیم از نو بسازد.
آینده سریعتر از آنچه فکر می کنید، نگاهی آگاهانه به آینده قریب الوقوع ما ارائه می دهد.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
December 30, 2020
My engineering husband listened to this a month ago and had not stopped talking about it. I had to listen via his audible account so I could better understand his enthusiasm. I am not terribly technologically savvy, but it was a fun read that has made our household a home of dreamers over the past week as we discuss limitless future opportunities.
July 30, 2020
Should we continue to embrace development of new technology because we can or should we be careful to understand the implications before we do? That is the thesis examined by this book.
“Disruptive innovation,” as the author describes it, or “creative destruction” as it’s called by capitalism, will have to be accommodated somehow. In both cases the assumption is that innovation and/or economic progress is worth the price. That is yet to be seen!
The convergence of AI, 3D printing, cultured meats, nanotechnology, virtual/augmented reality, biotechnology and blockchain, will dramatically alter our ways of living or working.
Organizations doing manufacturing, retailing, insuring, financing, selling real estate, communicating, entertaining, agriculture, educating, and governing will have to reinvent their systems.
Technology affecting change:
Manufacturing—AI, 3D printing, nanotechnology (eliminates jobs, will it reduce costs?)
Retailing, Entertaining, Communicating—virtual reality, augmented reality, fiber optics, 5G. (Not local, will it be less responsive to customers?)
Financing—Blockchain, virtual banks (see State Farm offer, again distance, not personal)
Insuring—AI segmentation, driverless cars, sales through media. (Companies avoiding risks)
Real estate—virtual reality home based sales via media (again distance from clients)
Agriculture—3D printing of vegetables, vertical crops, monitor of H2O and plant nutrients. More efficient. (Good, closer to consumers)
Medicine—body sensors, nanoscopic agents in the body, robotic surgery, gene therapy, gene modification, robotic genes. (Repression of aging, healthier people, costly)
Education—multimedia lessons, virtual/augmented reality lessons. (Centralized, uniform lessons, vulnerable to propaganda)
Climate-tree planting drones, floating cities, cultured meat grown from stem cells, battery sharing. (Finally accepting the problem, too late?)
Governing-rapid election decisions through electronic means, Note: per the author, he believes that separation of powers and checks and balances may be too slow to be responsive???? (A threat to checks on leaders)
Further, great migrations will be destabilizing: based on climate changes, urbanization, travel into space, and evolution by human direction (less natural selection, a threat to the idea of god)
As described every aspect of our lives will change rapidly. The question is, will stress and uncertainty caused by the changes be offset by benefits or not? Will we be able to manage the transition????
From page 236 of the book: “We are going to experience a hundred years of technological progress over the next ten years. However, “many of the most powerful technologies we’ll have at our disposal-artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, are only starting to come online. So, the threats we face might be dire, but the solutions we already possess will continue to increase in power” (offer hope??)
This is a terrifying book, it promises wonders but questions if we can handle it.
What policies should govern this transition? That is my question!
Read the book yourself to really understand the story told!
“Disruptive innovation,” as the author describes it, or “creative destruction” as it’s called by capitalism, will have to be accommodated somehow. In both cases the assumption is that innovation and/or economic progress is worth the price. That is yet to be seen!
The convergence of AI, 3D printing, cultured meats, nanotechnology, virtual/augmented reality, biotechnology and blockchain, will dramatically alter our ways of living or working.
Organizations doing manufacturing, retailing, insuring, financing, selling real estate, communicating, entertaining, agriculture, educating, and governing will have to reinvent their systems.
Technology affecting change:
Manufacturing—AI, 3D printing, nanotechnology (eliminates jobs, will it reduce costs?)
Retailing, Entertaining, Communicating—virtual reality, augmented reality, fiber optics, 5G. (Not local, will it be less responsive to customers?)
Financing—Blockchain, virtual banks (see State Farm offer, again distance, not personal)
Insuring—AI segmentation, driverless cars, sales through media. (Companies avoiding risks)
Real estate—virtual reality home based sales via media (again distance from clients)
Agriculture—3D printing of vegetables, vertical crops, monitor of H2O and plant nutrients. More efficient. (Good, closer to consumers)
Medicine—body sensors, nanoscopic agents in the body, robotic surgery, gene therapy, gene modification, robotic genes. (Repression of aging, healthier people, costly)
Education—multimedia lessons, virtual/augmented reality lessons. (Centralized, uniform lessons, vulnerable to propaganda)
Climate-tree planting drones, floating cities, cultured meat grown from stem cells, battery sharing. (Finally accepting the problem, too late?)
Governing-rapid election decisions through electronic means, Note: per the author, he believes that separation of powers and checks and balances may be too slow to be responsive???? (A threat to checks on leaders)
Further, great migrations will be destabilizing: based on climate changes, urbanization, travel into space, and evolution by human direction (less natural selection, a threat to the idea of god)
As described every aspect of our lives will change rapidly. The question is, will stress and uncertainty caused by the changes be offset by benefits or not? Will we be able to manage the transition????
From page 236 of the book: “We are going to experience a hundred years of technological progress over the next ten years. However, “many of the most powerful technologies we’ll have at our disposal-artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, are only starting to come online. So, the threats we face might be dire, but the solutions we already possess will continue to increase in power” (offer hope??)
This is a terrifying book, it promises wonders but questions if we can handle it.
What policies should govern this transition? That is my question!
Read the book yourself to really understand the story told!
October 8, 2021
Book-reader mismatch.
Liked:
- A handful of interesting and new-to-me ideas to explore in more detail, in more in-depth books, like...
- The future of longevity and medicine. Having recently read The Code Breaker and The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer I am on the verge of diving into the deep end like I did with space mining last winter. This area is fascinating and moving super fast.
- The future of insurance: as medical, health and lifestyle data becomes more integrated into insurace, low-risk clients (in health, driving, whatever other behaviours are insured) can pool themselves together at ultra-low costs, which will break the statistics and risk modelling for "the rest of us/them".
Disliked:
- My typical complaint of a book like this: broad but not deep. Give me the details.
- It's a prediction book with a short (10 year) time horizon. I read one of these a few years ago (10 years after it was published) and it got nearly everything wrong. So I take these with a significant grain of salt.
- I'll be honest that I found some of the ideas of what the future may be like repulsive, and this is not the book's fault, it's a me problem. A future where an AI in my contact lens can surprise me my purchasing furniture based on my eyes wandering and focusing on things I like in my environment... sounds terrible. While I generally love technology and the internet I have found that even having a "factory" smartphone crosses too many boundaries - I need to strip out ads, notifications/interruptions, and (attempt to) control content exposure... or else it just becomes too invasive.
- I didn't learn much that was new to me. As another reviewer said, "If you follow technology blogs for a while, you read everything in this book previously somewhere, usually in better form."
- The idea of converging technology is important and could be better understood by many.. but I found this too cheerleader-y for technology solutions, not pragmatic about some of the major challenges and obstacles. I could be convinced that an audiobook version would be better than the paper copy... as I did not love the paper copy.
While the book didn't click with me, I think it could be fascinating to someone who has not much paid attention to the rate of technological change over the last 5-10 years.
Liked:
- A handful of interesting and new-to-me ideas to explore in more detail, in more in-depth books, like...
- The future of longevity and medicine. Having recently read The Code Breaker and The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer I am on the verge of diving into the deep end like I did with space mining last winter. This area is fascinating and moving super fast.
- The future of insurance: as medical, health and lifestyle data becomes more integrated into insurace, low-risk clients (in health, driving, whatever other behaviours are insured) can pool themselves together at ultra-low costs, which will break the statistics and risk modelling for "the rest of us/them".
Disliked:
- My typical complaint of a book like this: broad but not deep. Give me the details.
- It's a prediction book with a short (10 year) time horizon. I read one of these a few years ago (10 years after it was published) and it got nearly everything wrong. So I take these with a significant grain of salt.
- I'll be honest that I found some of the ideas of what the future may be like repulsive, and this is not the book's fault, it's a me problem. A future where an AI in my contact lens can surprise me my purchasing furniture based on my eyes wandering and focusing on things I like in my environment... sounds terrible. While I generally love technology and the internet I have found that even having a "factory" smartphone crosses too many boundaries - I need to strip out ads, notifications/interruptions, and (attempt to) control content exposure... or else it just becomes too invasive.
- I didn't learn much that was new to me. As another reviewer said, "If you follow technology blogs for a while, you read everything in this book previously somewhere, usually in better form."
- The idea of converging technology is important and could be better understood by many.. but I found this too cheerleader-y for technology solutions, not pragmatic about some of the major challenges and obstacles. I could be convinced that an audiobook version would be better than the paper copy... as I did not love the paper copy.
While the book didn't click with me, I think it could be fascinating to someone who has not much paid attention to the rate of technological change over the last 5-10 years.
September 18, 2021
This book is optimistic, it is really optimistic. My experience in project management makes me think it's too optimistic. It's also very SoCal centric. My favorite line for this was something along the lines of 'with the advent of self driving cars in the future you will need a special license to operate a car manually'... like... don't we have something like that today? Some sort of license required to allow you to drive? The thought that it might be more economically viable to create an artificial island off the coast of California rather than open a branch in Texas is another proof of this myopia, but the Bay Area is so expensive that people are obviously thinking about it. However, for a technology to reach the levels the authors talk about, it has to be something that will benefit everybody equally (did we forget to apply the democratic check to all of the tech we were talking about here authors?) and it has to be something that fixes a problem automatically.
On that thread, Elon Musk is not successful because he is visionary. Ideas are cheap. His system of understanding the steps necessary to get to a goal and be successful along the what is exceptional. The minutia to get from here to there is the most important part. In Silicon Valley, that 'what to do in the 10-100 years before this is a viable technology' is hidden in the closet by venture capital, which can work if you're lucky, and if things keep accelerating. However, in business, it's more common for a company to start off with a big idea, then realize that there is no road to get there, and that there are a lot of things in the path that maybe we should bend the road around and avoid, and then find out that they've built something completely different but profitable, or go bust. Elon's ability to chart out the toll roads along his path is what makes his long shots believable. This book was written as if every entrepreneur is able to do this, which the authors must know is not the case, so I felt like I was I being gaslighted the whole time.
Do I know what 2030 will look like? No. Do I know which technologies spoken about in this book will have hit brick walls, and which technologies are changing my life the most but were completely overlooked? Absolutely not. I can be sure that there will be a lot more resistance to change than what the authors portray here, and that AIs will not be at the point where they know you better than you know yourself (assuming at some point in your life you spent any amount of time figuring out who you were and don't need an AI to tell you).
Personally, I imagine that LTE will still be fine for almost everything a person does, and that the majority of the USA will still be driving their own gasoline cars. The average person will not have nanobots in their bloodstream, or WIFI in their sneakers, and the fact that transistors stopped shrinking 3-5 years ago will just be starting to affect the the average American enough that they realize it. Quantum computing's greatest contribution will be that it's invention birthed its necessity as it is added as a security layer, but maybe not by 2030, and likely not in time to avoid a (recoverable) catastrophe (or two). While there is probably going to be an evolutionary leap at some point caused by quantum computing, there is no way of knowing if it is going to happen in the next 10 years. I give it low odds, especially if venture capital keeps drying up. It is the quintessential "this will likely be helpful someday, we just need to pave over this mountain to get there" technology. My bet is on Transcranial Stimulation being the fad technology of the late 2020's/2030's, assuming it's not heavily regulated.
My biggest wish wish was that there would have been some methodology explaining how the future will look based on facts from the past. This whole book just sounded like some tech bro trying to sell me something. As it is, this information is fine to have rolling around in your head, it's better than nothing, but the information is also not trustworthy.
** 2nd reading **
Interesting that my reread was almost exactly a year later. Library loans sometimes be like that.
I've done a lot of thinking over the past year, and there were a handful of concepts that I knew I came across in this book that I wanted to review. I finished in about 3 hours, and only paused to review and investigate 4 times. It was refreshingly quick and satisfying to have clear expectations fulfilled. I feel like I was a little bit too harsh on the book the first time, but I still think that the estimation of the future will prove to be very off. Energy production and storage are continuing the slow but undeniable march of progress, whether we achieve major breakthroughs in solid state by 2025 is up in the air, I didn't notice that REDOX was mentioned the first time around, no idea when that will enter disruption though. We are another year closer to the end of transistor shrink, all bets are off until we get past 2025 (again, that year). Although I didn't consider the possible beginning of transistor material revolution that may have begun this year during my first reading.
I still think there is too much imagination, excessive rich Californian myopia, and not enough human centric science, but I can't deny that there is a lot they got right, like NFAs.
On that thread, Elon Musk is not successful because he is visionary. Ideas are cheap. His system of understanding the steps necessary to get to a goal and be successful along the what is exceptional. The minutia to get from here to there is the most important part. In Silicon Valley, that 'what to do in the 10-100 years before this is a viable technology' is hidden in the closet by venture capital, which can work if you're lucky, and if things keep accelerating. However, in business, it's more common for a company to start off with a big idea, then realize that there is no road to get there, and that there are a lot of things in the path that maybe we should bend the road around and avoid, and then find out that they've built something completely different but profitable, or go bust. Elon's ability to chart out the toll roads along his path is what makes his long shots believable. This book was written as if every entrepreneur is able to do this, which the authors must know is not the case, so I felt like I was I being gaslighted the whole time.
Do I know what 2030 will look like? No. Do I know which technologies spoken about in this book will have hit brick walls, and which technologies are changing my life the most but were completely overlooked? Absolutely not. I can be sure that there will be a lot more resistance to change than what the authors portray here, and that AIs will not be at the point where they know you better than you know yourself (assuming at some point in your life you spent any amount of time figuring out who you were and don't need an AI to tell you).
Personally, I imagine that LTE will still be fine for almost everything a person does, and that the majority of the USA will still be driving their own gasoline cars. The average person will not have nanobots in their bloodstream, or WIFI in their sneakers, and the fact that transistors stopped shrinking 3-5 years ago will just be starting to affect the the average American enough that they realize it. Quantum computing's greatest contribution will be that it's invention birthed its necessity as it is added as a security layer, but maybe not by 2030, and likely not in time to avoid a (recoverable) catastrophe (or two). While there is probably going to be an evolutionary leap at some point caused by quantum computing, there is no way of knowing if it is going to happen in the next 10 years. I give it low odds, especially if venture capital keeps drying up. It is the quintessential "this will likely be helpful someday, we just need to pave over this mountain to get there" technology. My bet is on Transcranial Stimulation being the fad technology of the late 2020's/2030's, assuming it's not heavily regulated.
My biggest wish wish was that there would have been some methodology explaining how the future will look based on facts from the past. This whole book just sounded like some tech bro trying to sell me something. As it is, this information is fine to have rolling around in your head, it's better than nothing, but the information is also not trustworthy.
** 2nd reading **
Interesting that my reread was almost exactly a year later. Library loans sometimes be like that.
I've done a lot of thinking over the past year, and there were a handful of concepts that I knew I came across in this book that I wanted to review. I finished in about 3 hours, and only paused to review and investigate 4 times. It was refreshingly quick and satisfying to have clear expectations fulfilled. I feel like I was a little bit too harsh on the book the first time, but I still think that the estimation of the future will prove to be very off. Energy production and storage are continuing the slow but undeniable march of progress, whether we achieve major breakthroughs in solid state by 2025 is up in the air, I didn't notice that REDOX was mentioned the first time around, no idea when that will enter disruption though. We are another year closer to the end of transistor shrink, all bets are off until we get past 2025 (again, that year). Although I didn't consider the possible beginning of transistor material revolution that may have begun this year during my first reading.
I still think there is too much imagination, excessive rich Californian myopia, and not enough human centric science, but I can't deny that there is a lot they got right, like NFAs.
February 11, 2022
Судя по всему, лет через 15-20 я припаркую летающую машину, открою свой умный дом силой мысли, скажу роботу-повару, что хочу на ужин, кину ностальгический взгляд на пыльную книжную полку с данной книгой и с помощью VR-устройства пойду гулять по Лиссабону :)
Привет, Чёрное зеркало!
Привет, Чёрное зеркало!
June 9, 2022
Яким може бути світ через декілька десятиліть, враховуючи сучасні технології й новітні винаходи? Дуже оптимістична книга. Я еколог й ознайомлена трохи із проблемами, які вже є і ще чекають нас у зв’язку із знищенням природи - втратою біорізноманіття, природних екосистем й кліматичними змінами. Нічого хорошого нас не чекає, і якщо у нас не буде чистої води, повітря й ґрунтів, то ніякі технології не зроблять наше життя кращим. Тобто звісно, деякі інновації вражають й дають надію. На приклад, ідея створення роботів-запилювачів якось не втішає, якщо є розуміння, що людство знищує комах через використання інсектицидів.
Ну і друга причина, яка зводить нанівець всі позитивні враження від книги - це війна в Україні. Якось дуже дратує читати наївні оптимістичні ідеї про подолання продовольчої кризи, сучасні міста тощо. Коли в Маріуполі епідемія холери через окупантів й світу загрожує продовольча криза через них же, то якось не віриться оптимістичним прогнозам, які написали ситі чоловіки десь у силіконовій долині. Людству не світить ця вся фантастика.
Та заради справедливості, коротко поясню, про що розповідає книга. Читати справді цікаво, визнаю.
Усі експотенціальні технології проходять через цикл шість Д : диджиталізація, дематеріалізація, дезорієнтація, дестабілізація, демонетизація, демократизація
Трохи про сприятливе середовище для інновацій:
- заощаджений час (завдяки тим же технологіям, які дозволяють витрачати менше часу на побутові справи, як от приготування їжі, прибирання тощо)
- доступність капіталу (на приклад, краудфандинг)
- демонетизація
- більше геніїв (як багато талановитих людей не можуть отримати можливість для самореалізації! це проблема)
- комунікація (зв’язки вирішують все. Без знайомств й можливостей ніякі гарні ідеї не матимуть шанс побачити світ)
- нові бізнес-моделі
- довголіття (ну тут автори напевно мають на увазі довголіття тих розумних й успішних людей, які розвиватимуть технології, ну ок)
А далі про ймовірні інновації у деяких сферах, які вже на порозі:
Шопінг вже не той, тут мова про онлайн покупки, які будуть поєднуватися із віртуальною реальністю та штучним інтелектом, що підбиратиме для вас те, що потрібно. тут також про безвідходне виробництво, про магазини без касирів про вплив 3Д принтерів на мережі постачання (типу їх вже не потрібно буде, якщо всі зможуть друкувати собі запчастини на 3Д принтерах)
реклама. Нас чекає щось подібне на фантастичні фільми, де реклама супроводжує нас усюди вже не голосом Сірі, а 3Д образами, використовуючи дані про ��ас. Трохи стрьомно
Розваги. Хліба і видовищ - все, що треба людям. Тож розваги поглинають передові технології. Голографічні технології, діпфейк, користувацький контент у відеоіграх і всяке таке, без чого люди “не можуть жити”
Освіта. Освіта після розваг, звісно. Але без неї не буде нашого майбутнього, тож не можна оминути цю важливу галузь. Автори вважають, що майбутнє за вчителями-андроїдами.
Медицина теж пов’язана зі штучним інтелектом та роботами. Діагностика значно покращиться завдяки штучному інтелекту й використанню даних за допомогою наручних браслетів абощо. Хірургічні операції вже частково здійснюються роботами і надалі їх використання збільшуватиметься. Також автори вірять у редагування геному людини (на приклад для того, щоб позбутися ризику спадкових хвороб)
Цілий розділ присвячений довголіттю. Дуже стисло про наявні технології, зокрема компанії Samumed й Alkahest, які займаються питанням лікування артриту й хвороби Альцгеймера.
Мені дуже цікаво було почитати про страхування. Є ідея аби люди платили різну суму страхових внесків, залежно від стилю життя, звичок, харчування тощо. Тобто, якщо людина часто напивається, їсть шкідливу їжу, не займається спортом то платитиме більше за свою страхівку, адже ризик, що з такою людиною щось трапиться є значно більшим, ніж у тих, хто принаймні робить все можливе, щоб не захворіти. Те саме із автомобільними страхівками. Вже зараз є компанії, які аналізують стиль водіння і є ідеї, щоб це впливало на суму страхового внеску. Make sense, але мені в цьому не імпонує всюдисуще око штучного інтелекту, який стежить за кожною дією.
Майбутнє їжі. Тут все крутиться навколо великих міст у США, тож не знаю, що цей розділ може мати спільного з нами, особливо зараз. Цікаво почитати загалом.
Зміни клімату й втрати природних екосистем. От тут я розчарована. Чесно кажучи, склалося враження, що або автори ніц не тямлять в тому, як працюють екосистеми, або просто загралися в казковий технологічний світ. Те, що я тут побачила немає нічого спільного із вирішенням справжніх загроз втрати природи.
Загалом книга цікава й легка. Думаю, читати варто, щоб не втрачати оптимізм й бути в курсі поступу
Ну і друга причина, яка зводить нанівець всі позитивні враження від книги - це війна в Україні. Якось дуже дратує читати наївні оптимістичні ідеї про подолання продовольчої кризи, сучасні міста тощо. Коли в Маріуполі епідемія холери через окупантів й світу загрожує продовольча криза через них же, то якось не віриться оптимістичним прогнозам, які написали ситі чоловіки десь у силіконовій долині. Людству не світить ця вся фантастика.
Та заради справедливості, коротко поясню, про що розповідає книга. Читати справді цікаво, визнаю.
Усі експотенціальні технології проходять через цикл шість Д : диджиталізація, дематеріалізація, дезорієнтація, дестабілізація, демонетизація, демократизація
Трохи про сприятливе середовище для інновацій:
- заощаджений час (завдяки тим же технологіям, які дозволяють витрачати менше часу на побутові справи, як от приготування їжі, прибирання тощо)
- доступність капіталу (на приклад, краудфандинг)
- демонетизація
- більше геніїв (як багато талановитих людей не можуть отримати можливість для самореалізації! це проблема)
- комунікація (зв’язки вирішують все. Без знайомств й можливостей ніякі гарні ідеї не матимуть шанс побачити світ)
- нові бізнес-моделі
- довголіття (ну тут автори напевно мають на увазі довголіття тих розумних й успішних людей, які розвиватимуть технології, ну ок)
А далі про ймовірні інновації у деяких сферах, які вже на порозі:
Шопінг вже не той, тут мова про онлайн покупки, які будуть поєднуватися із віртуальною реальністю та штучним інтелектом, що підбиратиме для вас те, що потрібно. тут також про безвідходне виробництво, про магазини без касирів про вплив 3Д принтерів на мережі постачання (типу їх вже не потрібно буде, якщо всі зможуть друкувати собі запчастини на 3Д принтерах)
реклама. Нас чекає щось подібне на фантастичні фільми, де реклама супроводжує нас усюди вже не голосом Сірі, а 3Д образами, використовуючи дані про ��ас. Трохи стрьомно
Розваги. Хліба і видовищ - все, що треба людям. Тож розваги поглинають передові технології. Голографічні технології, діпфейк, користувацький контент у відеоіграх і всяке таке, без чого люди “не можуть жити”
Освіта. Освіта після розваг, звісно. Але без неї не буде нашого майбутнього, тож не можна оминути цю важливу галузь. Автори вважають, що майбутнє за вчителями-андроїдами.
Медицина теж пов’язана зі штучним інтелектом та роботами. Діагностика значно покращиться завдяки штучному інтелекту й використанню даних за допомогою наручних браслетів абощо. Хірургічні операції вже частково здійснюються роботами і надалі їх використання збільшуватиметься. Також автори вірять у редагування геному людини (на приклад для того, щоб позбутися ризику спадкових хвороб)
Цілий розділ присвячений довголіттю. Дуже стисло про наявні технології, зокрема компанії Samumed й Alkahest, які займаються питанням лікування артриту й хвороби Альцгеймера.
Мені дуже цікаво було почитати про страхування. Є ідея аби люди платили різну суму страхових внесків, залежно від стилю життя, звичок, харчування тощо. Тобто, якщо людина часто напивається, їсть шкідливу їжу, не займається спортом то платитиме більше за свою страхівку, адже ризик, що з такою людиною щось трапиться є значно більшим, ніж у тих, хто принаймні робить все можливе, щоб не захворіти. Те саме із автомобільними страхівками. Вже зараз є компанії, які аналізують стиль водіння і є ідеї, щоб це впливало на суму страхового внеску. Make sense, але мені в цьому не імпонує всюдисуще око штучного інтелекту, який стежить за кожною дією.
Майбутнє їжі. Тут все крутиться навколо великих міст у США, тож не знаю, що цей розділ може мати спільного з нами, особливо зараз. Цікаво почитати загалом.
Зміни клімату й втрати природних екосистем. От тут я розчарована. Чесно кажучи, склалося враження, що або автори ніц не тямлять в тому, як працюють екосистеми, або просто загралися в казковий технологічний світ. Те, що я тут побачила немає нічого спільного із вирішенням справжніх загроз втрати природи.
Загалом книга цікава й легка. Думаю, читати варто, щоб не втрачати оптимізм й бути в курсі поступу
April 23, 2020
Found this book to be a great window into how tech could be changing our world in the coming years, although some things might feel a little far fetched, I remember reading "bold" a few years ago and having the same feeling.
Author explains some of the innovation trends that we should expect in the coming years. These innovations are fueled by the convergence of several independent technologies. They are labeled as exponential tech, which goes through 6 phases ending in demonetization, dematerialization and democratization.
These independent technologies are: AI, smart networks, sensors, robotics, VR, 3D printing, materials science and quantum computing. I made some quick notes on points I want to review in more detail:
In transportation he points to the following breakthroughs: EVTL, autonomous cars, hyperloop, rocket inter-continental travel. Essentially this will change how we move, where we live and our daily routines.
Quantum computing will enable faster computing and modeling of natures quantum processes.
Solar energy and biotech will enter the disruptive phase soon.
Some consequences I found appealing: we will live longer lifespan, there will be more people contributing globally through democratizing connectivity, cognitive enhancement is coming.
Fueled by the convergence of thec, there will be massive changes in retail, entertainment, advertisement, education, healthcare, insurance, finance, RE, food.
He discusses major issues to be found in the next 100 years and what is being done relating to: water scarcity, emissions, climate change, human unemployment.
To address these issues we will need to change our vision, prevention methods and governance models.
We will face five major migrations due to: climate, urbanization, VR, space and meta intelligence.
Author explains some of the innovation trends that we should expect in the coming years. These innovations are fueled by the convergence of several independent technologies. They are labeled as exponential tech, which goes through 6 phases ending in demonetization, dematerialization and democratization.
These independent technologies are: AI, smart networks, sensors, robotics, VR, 3D printing, materials science and quantum computing. I made some quick notes on points I want to review in more detail:
In transportation he points to the following breakthroughs: EVTL, autonomous cars, hyperloop, rocket inter-continental travel. Essentially this will change how we move, where we live and our daily routines.
Quantum computing will enable faster computing and modeling of natures quantum processes.
Solar energy and biotech will enter the disruptive phase soon.
Some consequences I found appealing: we will live longer lifespan, there will be more people contributing globally through democratizing connectivity, cognitive enhancement is coming.
Fueled by the convergence of thec, there will be massive changes in retail, entertainment, advertisement, education, healthcare, insurance, finance, RE, food.
He discusses major issues to be found in the next 100 years and what is being done relating to: water scarcity, emissions, climate change, human unemployment.
To address these issues we will need to change our vision, prevention methods and governance models.
We will face five major migrations due to: climate, urbanization, VR, space and meta intelligence.
February 28, 2021
The book has a staggering amount of reference with 80 pages. It's one of the most referenced books I've ever read. Unfortunately most of them are from tech magazines such as Wired and Forbes. The book naturally leaves an impression of news collections. You will come out of this with shallow impression.
The content is full of amazing ideas in every industry from insurance to education. You will familiarize yourself with uptrend high-tech startups, where I had to Google many of them.
As far as critical analysis goes, there was little numerical analysis other than the amount of venture capital startups have raised or big shots like Goole announced they're working on it. Well, in the past, we have so many examples technology didn't advance nearly as promised which I wished he went in deeper to analyze. This is where the book falls short of highly empirical books like that of Ray Kurzweil. (he did say CRISPR is still a very age as well lab grown meat. I assume it'll take more than 30 years even though he's never explicit with the timeline beyond 5 years).
Nevertheless, he does a fantastic job getting us on top of the current technology trend. Now is the time to grab this book. It'll be outdated in 2 years.
UPDATE
After 2 weeks, I remember 2 ideas from the book. One is the metaphor of VR and migration. That is such an interesting analogy. Peter claims that's the bigger movement of people than ones derived from immigration or displacement as a result of climate change. Another is digitization as the starting point of innovation. He primarily meant it as digital information. But I take that more broadly as analyzing the phenomenon and properly documenting it like one from science. That framework lets us see the current news and spotlight how far ahead these new "tech discoveries" will impact in our lives.
The content is full of amazing ideas in every industry from insurance to education. You will familiarize yourself with uptrend high-tech startups, where I had to Google many of them.
As far as critical analysis goes, there was little numerical analysis other than the amount of venture capital startups have raised or big shots like Goole announced they're working on it. Well, in the past, we have so many examples technology didn't advance nearly as promised which I wished he went in deeper to analyze. This is where the book falls short of highly empirical books like that of Ray Kurzweil. (he did say CRISPR is still a very age as well lab grown meat. I assume it'll take more than 30 years even though he's never explicit with the timeline beyond 5 years).
Nevertheless, he does a fantastic job getting us on top of the current technology trend. Now is the time to grab this book. It'll be outdated in 2 years.
UPDATE
After 2 weeks, I remember 2 ideas from the book. One is the metaphor of VR and migration. That is such an interesting analogy. Peter claims that's the bigger movement of people than ones derived from immigration or displacement as a result of climate change. Another is digitization as the starting point of innovation. He primarily meant it as digital information. But I take that more broadly as analyzing the phenomenon and properly documenting it like one from science. That framework lets us see the current news and spotlight how far ahead these new "tech discoveries" will impact in our lives.
February 3, 2020
These two authors live and work in Silicon Valley and it shows in this book. They don't just talk about the developments that are in the news, that everyone knows about. They share the very latest, cutting edge stuff. In fact, I did this book via audio and at the end of each chapter they added a recording of a conversation between the authors talking about the new stuff that developed in the 9 months since they sent the manuscript to the publisher.
They were concerned about how things had changed in 9 months and didn't want to misrepresent the details. That's how much this book is on the edge of change.
The future is MUCH faster than you're probably thinking. There's huge change coming, from your doctor (robot surgeons and AI diagnosis) to your drive to work (flying cars are very close--testing them right now!) to how you think and learn (controlling machines with your mind is already happening)--the world is going to be very different in the next 5-10 years.
This isn't far future. This isn't predictions. This books tells you what's already happening and just hasn't made it to your neighborhood yet.
They were concerned about how things had changed in 9 months and didn't want to misrepresent the details. That's how much this book is on the edge of change.
The future is MUCH faster than you're probably thinking. There's huge change coming, from your doctor (robot surgeons and AI diagnosis) to your drive to work (flying cars are very close--testing them right now!) to how you think and learn (controlling machines with your mind is already happening)--the world is going to be very different in the next 5-10 years.
This isn't far future. This isn't predictions. This books tells you what's already happening and just hasn't made it to your neighborhood yet.
October 15, 2020
raso, clichê e narra uma utopia pedestre.
uma coisa irritante nesse livro, além das especulações desenfreadas sobre tudo e qualquer coisa, é essa perspectiva Kurtzwelliana de não saber diferenciar IA de um simples algoritmo. qualquer método de otimização ganha essa alcunha, virando um termo coringa e desprovido de sentido.
outro ponto que contribui para a impressionante superficialidade de todo o livro é a clássica narrativa "mimimi startups vão resolver o mundo mimimi uber não tem carros airbnb não tem casas etc etc". cringy.
em resumo, esse livro seria o resultado de uma revista Mundo Estranho feita por coaches do Vale do Silicio.
uma coisa irritante nesse livro, além das especulações desenfreadas sobre tudo e qualquer coisa, é essa perspectiva Kurtzwelliana de não saber diferenciar IA de um simples algoritmo. qualquer método de otimização ganha essa alcunha, virando um termo coringa e desprovido de sentido.
outro ponto que contribui para a impressionante superficialidade de todo o livro é a clássica narrativa "mimimi startups vão resolver o mundo mimimi uber não tem carros airbnb não tem casas etc etc". cringy.
em resumo, esse livro seria o resultado de uma revista Mundo Estranho feita por coaches do Vale do Silicio.
February 13, 2020
I think this is an excellent book albeit perhaps a little optimistic. But maybe not. The author covers so many aspects of the economy, healthcare, engineering, computing, transportation...It is really a great read and an excellent contrast to the typical calamity-reporting media who would have you believe the world is ending any minute.
We as Earthlings have so many things to look forward to and this book covers so many of the with concrete examples. The book itself contains very few specific references, however, everything that I checked while reading the book checked out.
We as Earthlings have so many things to look forward to and this book covers so many of the with concrete examples. The book itself contains very few specific references, however, everything that I checked while reading the book checked out.
December 13, 2021
If we struggle to track the growth of singular innovations, we are downright helpless in the face of converging ones. Put it this ways, in "The Law of Accelerating Returns", Ray Kurzweil did the math and found that we are going to experience 20k years of technological change over the next one hundred years. This means we are going from the birth of agriculture to the birth of the internet twice in the next century. What are changing? How can we prepare for the boom?
First the book explored ten technologies currently on exponential growth curves, examining where they are today and where they are going. Then, the book dived into nine industries and discussed how converging technologies are reshaping our world - from future of education and entertainment to the transformation of healthcare and business. Lastly, the book expanded its view from the decade ahead to the full century, focusing on five great migrations, economic relocations, climate-change upheavals, virtual worlds explorations, outerspace colonization, and hive-mind collaborations.
I am particularly fascinated by the convergence of medicine. Perhaps the biggest consequence of this convergence will be individually customized medicine or what's called N-of-1 medicine. In N-of-1 medicine, every treatment you receive has been specifically designed for you - your genome, transcriptome, proteome, microbiome, and all the rest. It’s a level of preventative care not seen before. You will know the foods, supplements, and exercise regimen that are perfect for you. You will understand which microbes inhabit your gut, and what diet keeps them healthy and fit. You will know which diseases you are most likely to develop and be able to take steps to prevent them. It's an era of incredibly personalized medical care, where the tools of life have become tools for the preservation of life., and many of the diseases that plagued earlier generations have begun to fade from memory.
First the book explored ten technologies currently on exponential growth curves, examining where they are today and where they are going. Then, the book dived into nine industries and discussed how converging technologies are reshaping our world - from future of education and entertainment to the transformation of healthcare and business. Lastly, the book expanded its view from the decade ahead to the full century, focusing on five great migrations, economic relocations, climate-change upheavals, virtual worlds explorations, outerspace colonization, and hive-mind collaborations.
I am particularly fascinated by the convergence of medicine. Perhaps the biggest consequence of this convergence will be individually customized medicine or what's called N-of-1 medicine. In N-of-1 medicine, every treatment you receive has been specifically designed for you - your genome, transcriptome, proteome, microbiome, and all the rest. It’s a level of preventative care not seen before. You will know the foods, supplements, and exercise regimen that are perfect for you. You will understand which microbes inhabit your gut, and what diet keeps them healthy and fit. You will know which diseases you are most likely to develop and be able to take steps to prevent them. It's an era of incredibly personalized medical care, where the tools of life have become tools for the preservation of life., and many of the diseases that plagued earlier generations have begun to fade from memory.
September 11, 2022
Спочатку все кльово - літаючі таксі, блокчейн, генна інженерія, люди, коні, мухи, котлети. Але коли копнути трохи глибше і почати перевіряти посилання, які надає автор, то виявляється, що правда трохи вислизає крізь пальці. Наприклад, автор розказує про крутий штучний інтелект, який перечитав усі книги і може допомогти тобі аля психолог-філософ, а по факту, це простий парсер, який відповідає тобі ключовими словами зі знайдених книг. Або про УЖЕ збереження терабайтів (так-так, терабайтів) даних в ДНК, а насправді, це лише концепція, яка може зберегти до 16 гіг даних. Відчуття, наче спілкуєшся з людиною, а вона тобі лапшу навішує.
Фінальним акордом став "прорив в системі освіти", де автор описує африканських дітей, яким дали по планшету, і вони за 2 тижні вивчили алфавіт, а за 5 місяців хакнули систему. Карл, хакнули операційку! Автор хоч знає значення цього слова? Рукалице...
Фінальним акордом став "прорив в системі освіти", де автор описує африканських дітей, яким дали по планшету, і вони за 2 тижні вивчили алфавіт, а за 5 місяців хакнули систему. Карл, хакнули операційку! Автор хоч знає значення цього слова? Рукалице...
November 24, 2020
"If you oxygenate one of the moon's big volcanoes, you can fly with human powered wings because gravity is low enough."
If you want to read about what the most brilliant humans have been up to, and their ideas, this is the book for you.
If you want to read about what the most brilliant humans have been up to, and their ideas, this is the book for you.
March 12, 2021
Awe inspiring, exhilarating. 5-stars. A must read for anyone interested in where technology is now and where it is going, and how it is already changing everything about how you work, live, and play...and the many positive and surprising changes about to happen that are already within reach. I will be following these authors in the future as well as the multiple trends they have highlighted.
February 1, 2021
Радость технооптимистов, книга для вдохновения прогрессом. Обзор перспективных направлений технологического развития. Люблю такое, хотя и понимаю, что книга устареет достаточно быстро.
August 23, 2020
The book gives as high level summary to several emerging technologies that will reshape our world in the next decades. If it had gone into details on some of the more interesting topics, it would've felt less like a marketing pamphlet for Abundance 360 and Singularity University, where are both run by the author.
December 26, 2020
A good summary of current progression of technology, but really overhyped to a level that can be annoying sometimes. This might be a result of at least one of the authors being an investor in several high-tech companies, so prepare for a marketing speech on how great new technologies are.
You will read several times something like this: “as crazy it is, this technology already exists”, and the book paints a picture that the flying cars are round the corner, minutes away. Well yes, and man was on the moon a half century ago, but never since. I’m using the same SAP at work in slight alterations in the last 20 years, nothing better in sight. Did you guys actually talk to one of those online customer service bots? Not a great experience actually. Do you know that the average age of cars in my country is 14 years? All this would sound you crazy, after reading this book.
I do agree with the basic statements there and I would most probably recommend you to read it as it’s overall interesting. But keep in mind that it’s neither objective, nor comprehensive on the topic.
Potentially you can always watch a couple of Black Mirror episodes after reading the book, if you feel the hype was just too much.
You will read several times something like this: “as crazy it is, this technology already exists”, and the book paints a picture that the flying cars are round the corner, minutes away. Well yes, and man was on the moon a half century ago, but never since. I’m using the same SAP at work in slight alterations in the last 20 years, nothing better in sight. Did you guys actually talk to one of those online customer service bots? Not a great experience actually. Do you know that the average age of cars in my country is 14 years? All this would sound you crazy, after reading this book.
I do agree with the basic statements there and I would most probably recommend you to read it as it’s overall interesting. But keep in mind that it’s neither objective, nor comprehensive on the topic.
Potentially you can always watch a couple of Black Mirror episodes after reading the book, if you feel the hype was just too much.
March 20, 2023
Не сподобалось.
Одразу видно, що книжку писав не інженер чи науковець, а менеджер з продажів.
Замість аналізу - лозунги. Замість цікавих кейсів - вже давно відоме і часто застаріле (адже те, про що він пише, застаріває миттєво - 3-5 років вже величезний термін).
Солодкий карамельний оптимізм автора набридає вже у другому розділі і будить внутрішнього параноїка: якщо мені так зразково та на 32 зуби щось намагаються "впарити" - то це точно якась фігня. До того ж у тексті забагато "води".
Не рекомендую.
На тему майбутнього, футурології та розвитку технологій є багато більш достойних книжок.
Одразу видно, що книжку писав не інженер чи науковець, а менеджер з продажів.
Замість аналізу - лозунги. Замість цікавих кейсів - вже давно відоме і часто застаріле (адже те, про що він пише, застаріває миттєво - 3-5 років вже величезний термін).
Солодкий карамельний оптимізм автора набридає вже у другому розділі і будить внутрішнього параноїка: якщо мені так зразково та на 32 зуби щось намагаються "впарити" - то це точно якась фігня. До того ж у тексті забагато "води".
Не рекомендую.
На тему майбутнього, футурології та розвитку технологій є багато більш достойних книжок.
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